100+ specific findings — index

Every numbered point below is a specific data fact computed from the parquets in s3://tnelection2026/. Drill into the linked pages for context.

Margin distribution & cliffhangers (detail)

1. AC 185 Tirupattur was decided by 1 vote — TVK 83,375 vs DMK 83,374
2. 15 ACs decided by under 1,000 votes — 6 of those by under 500
3. 27 ACs decided by under 2,000 votes — 11.5% of all of TN
4. TVK won 5 of the 15 sub-1K races, AIADMK 4, DMK 3 — close-race outcomes broadly mirrored statewide pattern
5. TVK was the runner-up in 6 of 15 sub-1K races — the next-most TVK-impactful set
6. VCK won AC 72 Tindivanam by 734 votes — only VCK win in close-race set
7. AC 232 Padmanabhapuram has ENP = 6.60 — most fragmented contest in TN, 6+ effective parties splitting the vote
8. 180 ACs had top-3 candidates each above 20% — true three-way fights dominated
9. 113 ACs had top-3 above 25% — high-stakes three-corner battles
10. 19 ACs had top-3 above 30% — closest-possible three-corner where ~10% could win it

Blowouts (detail)

11. EPS (Edappadi K. Palaniswami) won AC 86 Edappadi by 98,110 votes — largest blowout in TN 2026, by AIADMK leader in his home seat
12. Vijay (TVK) won Perambur with 58.89% vote share — highest TVK percentage statewide
13. Vijay (TVK) won AC 27 Shozhinganallur by 96,780 votes — 2nd-biggest blowout
14. TVK secured 8 of the top 10 blowouts — wave + candidate power compounded
15. AIADMK had 2 of top 10 blowouts — both EPS-orbit seats (Edappadi, Viralimalai)
16. No DMK candidate in the top-10 blowouts — DMK could win narrowly, not crushingly

Vote-to-seat efficiency (detail)

17. TVK: 34.92% statewide vote share → 108 seats → 159,502 votes per seat — most efficient major party
18. DMK: 24.19% → 59 seats → 202,189 votes per seat — 27% less efficient than TVK
19. AIADMK: 21.21% → 47 seats → 222,599 votes per seat — 40% less efficient than TVK
20. BJP: 2.97% → 1 seat → 1,467,024 votes per seat — least efficient major party. 9.2× TVK's vote-per-seat cost.
21. NTK contested all 234, won zero. Wasted 1,972,537 votes (their entire statewide tally)
22. IUML: 0.29% statewide → 2 seats → 71,232 votes per seat — most efficient party in TN 2026
23. IND candidates wasted all 524,744 votes — zero wins from 232 contested
24. NOTA totalled 0.41% statewide — no representation, no power
25. CPI and CPI(M) each won 2 seats from 5 contested (40% win rate each) — Left allies of DMK held their pockets

DMK deep dive (detail)

26. DMK held 40 of their 133 winning 2021 seats — 70% turnover
27. DMK lost 65 seats to TVK (their largest flip-out category)
28. DMK lost 22 seats to AIADMK (reversion-to-NDA category)
29. DMK gained 15 seats from AIADMK (some compensation)
30. Median DMK 2026 vote share when WON: 36.2% (vs 28.5% when LOST)
31. Strongest DMK 2026 AC was AC 230 Nagercoil with their highest vote share
32. DMK's biggest losses by margin were in Chennai metro + Salem belt — same map as TVK's biggest wins

AIADMK deep dive (detail)

33. AIADMK held 22 of their 66 winning 2021 seats — 67% turnover
34. AIADMK lost 26 seats to TVK (within NDA, TVK captured ex-AIADMK voters)
35. AIADMK + PMK + BJP (NDA) combined won 52 seats — well below their 2021 NDA caucus
36. AIADMK's biggest blowout was EPS in Edappadi by 98,110 — personal-brand insulation worked at the top
37. Median AIADMK 2026 vote share when WON: 36.3% — virtually identical to DMK's winning median

TVK deep dive (detail)

38. TVK contested 233 of 234 ACs — solo, no alliance
39. TVK won 108 — a 46.4% win rate, highest of any major party
40. 11 TVK winners got more than 50% of vote — solo majority on first attempt
41. Vijay (C. Joseph Vijay) personally won Perambur with 58.89% — TVK's top
42. TVK's median vote share in winning ACs was 40.5%, in losing ACs 29.8%
43. TVK's highest vote share in a LOSING AC was 42.5% — they got 42% and still lost (in a 4-way fight)
44. TVK was runner-up in 15 of the closest sub-2K-margin races — 15 near-misses
45. TVK won 23 of 44 SC/ST reserved seats — 52% conversion vs 85 of 190 General (45%)
46. TVK's wasted votes: 7,587,869 (votes cast for TVK in seats they didn't win)

BJP (detail)

47. BJP contested 33 ACs in 2026, won 1 (down from 4 in 2021)
48. Best BJP showing: 32.6% (their only win)
49. L. Murugan (BJP) lost Avanashi (AC 112, SC) with 31.5% to a TVK winner — high vote share, wrong AC
50. BJP's 33 contests averaged 22% vote share — well below their 33% win-threshold

Round-wise drama (detail)

51. 82 of 234 ACs (35%) had a different round-1 leader vs final winner — over a third of seats had counting-day momentum shifts
52. AC 56 Thalli had 7 lead changes — most volatile counting
53. 121 ACs (52%) were decided from round 1 — no lead change throughout counting
54. 18 ACs had 4+ lead changes — true counting-day cliffhangers
55. Postal votes are opened last — and biased toward DMK by ~5 pp statewide

Postal vs EVM (detail)

56. TVK statewide postal vote share: 24.46% vs EVM 35.04% — a 10.6 pp gap
57. DMK statewide postal share: 29.43% vs EVM 24.13% — +5.3 pp postal premium
58. Postal share of all votes: 1.06% (~521K of 49M)
59. TVK's worst postal performance was AC 7 Maduravoyal — 25.5% postal vs 48.3% EVM (22.8 pp gap)
60. Top 5 worst postal-vs-EVM ACs for TVK are all Chennai metropolitan — youth wave was EVM-only

Reserved seats (detail)

61. TN has 44 SC + 2 ST = 46 reserved seats (the 2 ST being Yercaud and Senthamangalam — kracekumar 2021 data mislabels them)
62. TVK won 23 of 44 SC/ST reserved seats (52%) — the largest reserved-seat haul
63. DMK and AIADMK each won 9 reserved seats
64. VCK won 2 reserved seats (in alliance with DMK)
65. CPI(M) won 1 reserved seat
66. TVK in reserved + general combined: 108 seats overall — proportional but slightly better in reserved

Multi-corner contests (detail)

67. Median ENP (Laakso-Taagepera) = 3.24 — TN 2026 was genuinely a 3-party fight
68. Most fragmented AC: 232 Padmanabhapuram, ENP = 6.60 (6+ effective parties)
69. Most consolidated AC: ENP = 2.20 — essentially two-party
70. 19 ACs had 3+ candidates each above 30% — coin-flip three-corner fights
71. 180 ACs had top-3 each above 20% — broad three-way pattern

Party flips (detail)

72. DMK → TVK: 65 ACs flipped this way (biggest single flow)
73. AIADMK → TVK: 26 ACs
74. DMK → AIADMK: 22 ACs (reversion to AIADMK)
75. AIADMK → DMK: 15 ACs (counter-reversion)
76. DMK held only 40 of their 2021 wins (turnover ~70%)
77. AIADMK held only 22 of their 2021 wins (turnover ~67%)
78. INC held 4 of 9 winning 2021 seats (DMK alliance partner)
79. CPI held both their 2021 wins
80. A handful (BJP → DMK, BJP → TVK) — NDA seats peeling off to DMK alliance + TVK

NOTA + Independents (detail)

81. Median NOTA per AC: 0.39% — TN voters showed up to vote FOR something
82. Highest NOTA: AC 108 Udhagamandalam (Ooty) at 1.03% — hill district
83. AC 86 Edappadi (EPS's seat) had 10 Independents drawing 20.69% combined — IND wave specific to this AC, unusual
84. AC 111 Mettupalayam had 13 Independents drawing 12.29% — second-most IND-heavy
85. AC 227 Nanguneri had 14 Independents — most INDs in any AC
86. No Independent won a seat in 2026
87. NOTA contested all 234 ACs, won zero, totalled 0.41% statewide — purest "protest" channel

Specific candidate wins (detail)

88. Vijay won Perambur (AC 12) with 58.89% — the TVK leader's own seat
89. V. S. Babu (TVK) defeated M. K. Stalin (DMK) in Kolathur — sitting CM lost his own seat
90. C. Joseph Vijay's TVK candidates won 108 seats, none had a 2021 record under "TVK" — every TVK winner is a first-term MLA
91. N. Mariwilson (TVK) won Dr.Radhakrishnan Nagar with 53.97% — 2nd-highest TVK share
92. Edappadi K. Palaniswami (AIADMK) won Edappadi by 98,110 — single largest individual margin

Geographic + community (detail)

93. TVK won 0 of 6 in Kanniyakumari — 47% Christian, Christian + Nadar dominated
94. TVK won 2 of 22 in Cauvery delta (Thiruvarur + Nagapattinam + Thanjavur + Mayiladuthurai) — DMK historic heartland held
95. TVK won 4 of 41 in Vanniyar belt (Villupuram, Cuddalore, Tiruvannamalai, Kallakurichi, Dharmapuri, Tirupathur) — PMK heartland resisted
96. Christian % to TVK vote share Pearson r = +0.017 — essentially zero. Religion did not drive TVK.
97. TVK's biggest gains all in Chennai metro suburbs — Perambur, Madavaram, Avadi, Ambattur, Thiruvottiyur, Poonamallee, Velachery

Vote share variance (detail)

98. DMK vote share spread (P10-P90): 11.7 pp — most uniform statewide machine
99. AIADMK spread: 21.0 pp — wide variation, regional pockets
100. TVK spread: 19.4 pp — broader than DMK, more uniform than AIADMK
101. INC spread: 10.5 pp — most compact (limited contests, alliance discipline)
102. NTK spread: 4.0 pp — same 3-4% everywhere, no concentration ever

Vote wastage (detail)

103. DMK wasted 7,627,583 votes in losing seats (15% of TN's total vote)
104. TVK wasted 7,587,869 votes in losing seats — close to DMK's wastage
105. AIADMK wasted 6,589,489 votes
106. NTK wasted ALL 1,972,537 of their votes (zero seats)
107. BJP wasted 1,418,536 votes (1 seat won)

Honest acknowledgements

108. DMK lost 2021's strongholds nearly uniformly — median swing in held seats only 3 pp gentler than in lost seats
109. No "BJP grew 2× in reserved seats" finding — that v1 claim was a methodology artefact (5 of 7 reserved BJP rows were new entries, not swings)
110. TVK was not a Christian or Muslim-driven wave — religion correlations all |r| < 0.2

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How to verify

Every finding above maps to a query in pipelines/mega_insights.py against parquets in s3://tnelection2026/. Re-run end-to-end with:

uv run python pipelines/mega_insights.py

Output lands in docs/insights/mega_insights.json.