Finding — Reserved seats: TVK won 23 of 44 ​
TN's 44 SC + 2 ST reserved seats split: TVK 23 (52%), DMK 9 (20%), AIADMK 9 (20%), VCK 2 (5%), CPI(M) 1 (2%). The actual Dalit-swing story is TVK, not BJP.
This page replaces an earlier version
The first version of this site claimed "BJP gained 2× more in reserved seats" — that was a methodology artefact. See we-got-it-wrong for the full retraction. The corrected story below.
The breakdown — winners by party in 44 reserved + 2 ST seats ​
| Party | Seats won |
|---|---|
| TVK | 23 (50% of 46 reserved + ST) |
| DMK | 9 |
| AIADMK | 9 |
| VCK | 2 |
| CPI(M) | 1 |
| BJP | 0 |
| PMK | 0 |
| Others | 2 (incl. CPI) |
TVK won more reserved seats than DMK + AIADMK combined. The Dalit/Adi-Dravidar vote wasn't split between the Dravidian majors and the BJP — it consolidated significantly into TVK.
Reserved-seat list (44 SC + 2 ST as of 2026 Delimitation Order) ​
We use the Yercaud + Senthamangalam SC fix here (correcting kracekumar's 2021 CSV labels).
| AC | Constituency | Reservation | 2026 winner | Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ponneri (SC) | SC | (per parquet) | — |
| 5 | Poonamallee (SC) | SC | PRAKASAM R | TVK |
| 15 | Thiru-Vi-Ka Nagar | SC | (per parquet) | — |
| 29 | Sriperumbudur (SC) | SC | (per parquet) | — |
| 34 | Cheyyur (SC) | SC | (per parquet) | — |
| 38 | Arakkonam (SC) | SC | (per parquet) | — |
| 50 | Tiruppattur (SC) | SC | DR THIRUPATHI N | TVK |
| ... | (44 SC + Yercaud+Senthamangalam) |
For the full canonical list with all 44 winners, see pipelines/mega_insights.py output (S12 section).
TVK's reserved-seat wins by margin ​
TVK won 23 reserved seats. Their top 5 reserved wins:
| AC | Constituency | TVK candidate | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Poonamallee (SC) | PRAKASAM R | 72,740 |
| 8 | Ambattur (General) | BALAMURUGAN G | 58,781 |
| (more TVK reserved wins) |
These are blowout-level margins in reserved constituencies — clear evidence the Dalit electorate moved decisively to TVK in many ACs.
What this overturns ​
The v1 finding said: "BJP gained 2× more in reserved seats (+28.5 pp vs +12.5 pp)"
Reality: BJP contested 5 reserved seats in 2026. Won 0. The "+28.5 pp swing" was actually:
- 5 ACs where BJP entered for the first time (was AIADMK in 2021) — got 28-30% as new entrants, didn't win
- 2 ACs where BJP DROPPED OUT for 2026 (had contested 2021)
That's alliance reshuffling, not Dalit swing. The actual Dalit swing was to TVK.
Why TVK in reserved seats ​
Possible explanations (data shows the what, not the why):
- Identity-neutral celebrity appeal — Vijay's films and persona aren't caste-coded, unlike traditional party leaders
- TVK's "post-caste coalition" framing — they elected 2 Brahmin MLAs + ~20 SC/ST MLAs + Muslims, the broadest cross-section
- Anti-incumbency was uniform — Dalit voters disengaged from DMK at the same rates as other voters
- VCK's limited reach — the explicitly Dalit-rights ally of DMK won only 2 reserved seats, suggesting most Dalit voters didn't see VCK as primary
- AIADMK's reserved fortresses also held — they won 9 reserved seats; those are the ones where they had strong incumbents
VCK — the only explicitly Dalit-rights party ​
VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) is TN's most prominent Dalit-rights party, allied with DMK. They contested 8 seats, won 2:
- AC 72 Tindivanam — won by 734 votes (close race)
- Another reserved seat
VCK's strength in DMK alliance was always conditional on DMK's overall strength. With DMK's collapse, VCK's vote bank dispersed — some to TVK, some staying with DMK.
CPI / CPI(M) — Left allies of DMK ​
Both Left parties also got reserved seats:
- CPI: 2 seats (1 reserved? confirm via parquet)
- CPI(M): 4 seats overall, 1 reserved
These are DMK-alliance allocated seats. Even with the TVK wave, the Left held its reserved pocket — possibly because of organised cadre + DMK alliance arithmetic.
What this finding cannot tell us ​
- Caste-specific swings within Dalits — Pallar vs Paraiyar vs Arunthathiyar vote patterns aren't visible without booth-level + name-classification work
- Sub-AC variation — within a reserved AC, urban vs rural Dalit voters likely behaved differently; not visible at AC level
- Conscious vs default vote — was the TVK vote in reserved seats an active choice or just the "least bad" anti-DMK vote? Survey data needed.
Cross-check ​
- Reserved-seat winners:
s3://tnelection2026/results/curated/year=2026/.../candidate_totals.parquetjoined to AC metadata with Yercaud/Senthamangalam SC override - Margin analysis: top-2 candidates per AC, margin = v1 - v2
- Code:
pipelines/mega_insights.py(S12 section). Full 44-AC list indocs/insights/mega_insights.jsonfieldS12_reserved_winners_full_list.