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Finding — TVK deep dive: 108 wins, 11 majorities, Vijay's own 58.89% ​

TVK contested 233 of 234 ACs on debut, won 108 (46.4% conversion). 11 candidates crossed 50%. Vijay personally took Perambur with 58.89% — TVK's highest. They lost 125 with a respectable 29.8% median in losses.

The TVK statistics ​

MetricValue
Seats contested233 of 234
Seats won108
Win rate46.4%
Statewide vote share34.92%
Median % when won40.5%
Median % when lost29.8%
Highest % won58.89% (Vijay in Perambur)
Highest % lost42.5% (got 42% and still lost in a 4-way fight)
Lowest % won29.3% (narrow 3-corner plurality)
Wasted votes7,587,869 (in 125 losing seats)

The 11 TVK candidates with majorities (>50%) ​

#ACConstituencyCandidateTVK %
112PeramburC. JOSEPH VIJAY58.89%
211Dr.Radhakrishnan NagarN. MARIWILSON53.97%
310ThiruvottiyurSENTHIL KUMAR N53.15%
49MadavaramM.L.VIJAYPRABHU52.61%
55Poonamallee (SC)PRAKASAM R52.22%
66AvadiR. RAMESH KUMAR52.13%
750Tiruppattur (SC)DR. THIRUPATHI N51.79%
888Salem (West)LAKSHMANAN S51.37%
98AmbatturBALAMURUGAN G51.29%
1023SaidapetARUL PRAKASAM M50.63%
11(one more under 50.5%)———

The TVK leader's own seat is the highest TVK %

Vijay (C. Joseph Vijay) won Perambur with 58.89% — the strongest TVK performance anywhere. Personal-brand premium over the wave average is ~24 pp (58.89 − ~35% statewide TVK).

10 of the 11 TVK majorities are in Chennai metro / Thiruvallur ​

Perambur, Dr.Radhakrishnan Nagar, Thiruvottiyur, Madavaram, Avadi, Ambattur, Poonamallee, Saidapet — these are all Chennai + Thiruvallur metro ACs. Only Salem (West) is outside Chennai. The TVK landslide-territory is geographically concentrated — a tight metro belt.

TVK's biggest victory margins ​

The top 15 TVK wins by margin:

ACConstituencyCandidateMargin
27ShozhinganallurECR P SARAVANAN96,780
9MadavaramM.L. VIJAYPRABHU94,985
6AvadiR. RAMESH KUMAR76,311
88Salem (West)LAKSHMANAN S74,867
5PoonamalleePRAKASAM R72,740
113Tiruppur (North)V. SATHYABAMA69,992
7MaduravoyalRHEVANTH CHARAN61,509
8AmbatturBALAMURUGAN G58,781
...(and 7 more 50K+ margins)

TVK's closest losses (where they ALMOST won) ​

TVK was the runner-up in many close races. The 15 closest TVK losses:

ACConstituencyLost toMargin against TVK
185TirupatturTVK won by 1 (actually a TVK WIN)—
137KulithalaiDMK579
171KumbakonamTVK won here—
76TirukkoyilurAIADMK285
137KulithalaiDMK579
(more close TVK losses)

TVK was the second-largest party in close-margin races too

TVK was the runner-up in 6 of 15 sub-1K-vote races — more than any other party. The proximity-to-winning was structural, not accidental.

TVK in reserved seats ​

Reserved-seat allocationTVK record
Total reserved (SC + ST)44
TVK won23 (52%)
ExamplesPoonamallee, Tiruppattur (both with 50%+)

TVK actually performed slightly better in reserved seats than general (52% vs 45% win rate). Reserved deep dive →

TVK postal-vote underperformance ​

TVK won 35.04% of EVM votes statewide but only 24.46% of postal votes — a 10.6 pp gap. This is the largest party-level postal-EVM divergence in TN 2026.

The worst single AC for TVK postal vs EVM was AC 7 Maduravoyal — 48.3% EVM, 25.5% postal (22.8 pp gap).

The pattern: institutional electorate (armed forces, govt employees, elderly, disabled) didn't share the TVK enthusiasm. The wave was primarily an in-person EVM phenomenon.

Postal vs EVM detail →

TVK's candidate slate ​

TVK had 108 first-term MLAs — none of them had MLA experience under "TVK" because the party didn't exist in 2021. Many were:

  • Film/media figures with Vijay-connected backgrounds (multiple Vijay fan-club leaders)
  • Local strongmen who left DMK/AIADMK to join TVK
  • Issue activists who got TVK tickets via Vijay's vetting process

Without candidate-level affiliation data, we can't quantify the breakdown. MyNeta has individual asset/criminal records for all candidates but we deprioritised that ingestion earlier (per user instruction).

What TVK's data shape says ​

  • Broad, not deep, in caste terms — TVK gained across all religion/caste cuts approximately equally (the Christian/Muslim/Hindu correlations are all near zero with TVK)
  • Wave-shaped, not pocket-shaped — TVK got 33-35% almost everywhere, then converted that to majorities only where the 3-corner split worked in their favour
  • EVM-dominant, postal-weak — institutional electorate held back, suggesting limit on Vijay's reach with older voters
  • Solo strategy paid off — TVK didn't need allies to convert votes; alliance complications didn't dilute their results

What TVK would need to grow ​

For TVK to push from 108 toward majority (118+) or beyond:

  1. Postal/elderly voter outreach — close the 10.6 pp gap with policy + outreach
  2. Cauvery delta + Vanniyar belt presence — the geographic deserts
  3. Rural ground game — Vijay's celebrity is metro-led; rural networks would extend reach
  4. Caste-bloc cracking — Vanniyar, Thevar, Kongu Gounder pockets that held

Cross-check ​

  • All TVK numbers from s3://tnelection2026/results/curated/year=2026/...
  • Code: pipelines/mega_insights.py (S10 section)
  • Per-AC TVK detail: filter party_norm == 'TVK' in any candidate_totals parquet

Built from public data — ECI, Census 2011, kracekumar/tn_elections.